Chennai, March 16: ICC 2011 World Cup quarter-final spots from Group A have already been decided with New Zealand, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Australia making it to the next round. However, Group B is where all the action is, with the top five teams fighting it out fiercely for four spots in the quarter-finals. Here are all the possible outcomes from this group.

Group B – Points tally

South Africa

If there is one team in this group that can breathe easy, it is South Africa. They are through to the quarter-finals irrespective of all eventualities. If they beat Bangladesh in their last game, they will end as group-topper unless West Indies beat both England and India.

India

A win against West Indies will seal India’s place in the quarter-finals and win them the No. 2 spot in the group behind South Africa (if Bangladesh lose to South Africa).

But India can seal a quarter-final spot much before their last league match. If West Indies beat England or South Africa beat Bangladesh, India will go through without waiting for the outcome of their match against West Indies.

However, there remains a scenario which can threaten India’s quarter-final aspirations. This will happen if West Indies lose to England, South Africa lose to Bangladesh and then India lose to West Indies. In such a situation, West Indies, South Africa and Bangladesh will have 8 points each and will qualify for the quarter-finals.

This will leave India and England tied with seven points and the fourth team from Group B in the quarter-finals will be decided by the net run-rate of the two sides. India are currently in a better position than England on NRR. They have a NRR of +0.768 as against England’s +0.013. Even if England inflict a heavy defeat over West Indies (for instance, by 100 runs or more) and then India lose to West Indies, all India have to ensure is that they don’t lose the match (by more than 70-80 runs if England beat West Indies by 100 runs). In such a scenario, India will edge past England on NRR.

It is also in India’s favour that they are playing the last match of the group stage and so they will know exactly what they need to do to march into the knock-out rounds.

West Indies

A win against either England or India will book West Indies a berth in the last eight. If Bangladesh lose to South Africa, West Indies can also make it to the quarter-finals even after losing both their games. In such a scenario, West Indies and Bangladesh will tie on six points each, but West Indies’ better NRR will take them through.

Bangladesh

A win against South Africa will put Bangladesh into the quarter-finals. But they will be more interested in the outcome of the England-West Indies match as a win for West Indies here will eliminate England and Bangladesh will qualify along with India, West Indies and South Africa.

If, however, England beat West Indies, then Bangladesh will have to beat South Africa. There is a slender chance of Bangladesh making it to quarters even after losing to South Africa. If West Indies – after losing to England – lose to India as well, then both Bangladesh and West Indies will tie with six points each and the NRR will come into picture. However, West Indies have the highest NRR in the group and it will be almost impossible for Bangladesh to match them on NRR.

England

To get themselves a berth in the quarter-finals, England will have to beat West Indies. Even that result does not guarantee them a place in the quarter-final, because if Bangladesh beat South Africa, then Bangladesh will qualify. In such a scenario, England will need India to beat West Indies in the last league match. This will mean that West Indies will remain with 6 points. England will be through with 7 points. If West Indies beat India in the last league match, this will leave both India and England with 7 points and NRR will come into play. India have a better NRR (+0.768) than England (+0.013). Unless and until England beat West Indies heavily and then West Indies inflict a heavy defeat on India, England are unlikely to match India on NRR.

In case England’s match against West Indies is abandoned and then Bangladesh lose to South Africa, then both England and Bangladesh will tie with 6 points each. England will then miss out even though they may be having better NRR. This is because Bangladesh have won more matches (3) than England (2).

[Net run-rate comes into play only when two teams – equal on points- are also equal on number of wins. The team winning more matches is placed in the higher position in the group matches].

Ireland & Netherlands

They are out of the quarter-final race and their last match (against each other) is just of academic interest